The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of the Deep Dive, Bitcoin Magazine‘s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.
Over the weekend, the trend of falling hash rate on the Bitcoin network that has been observed over the last month accelerated in a historic manner. On Sunday, the average block time exceeded 23 minutes, the highest average block time on a day in over a decade, with the only other occurrences of slower average daily block intervals occuring before bitcoin even had a market price, back in 2009.
However it should be noted that looking at one-day sample sizes of hash rate and mean block interval times can be misleading, due to the probabilistic nature of bitcoin mining; variance is to be expected.
Using the trailing seven-days (168-hour moving average), the average time between blocks was 19 minutes and 32 seconds, almost double the 10-minute target interval.
The next miner difficulty adjustment is now estimated to come in at -25.8% on July 2, which would be the largest downwards difficulty adjustment in the history of the Bitcoin network.